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Whenever the wind flows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are launched across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes hanging beneath.

Over the recent period, this illicit balloon traffic has forced Lithuania's primary air hub into suspension 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are certain they are confronting something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They state the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an example of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian administration has instituted an state of emergency.

While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Of course it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus exploits criminal networks to have an effect on adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official argued the balloons are sent from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to make a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's border region.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, each evening, military police head out in the border zone.

The balloons are most frequent during the night.

Patrols set up temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has announced a financial incentive to any company that can develop how to intercept them.

For now, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also act as a preventive measure.

Political Objectives

The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This enhanced fortification is a clear sign of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as hostile.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a deliberate crisis.

"Now they are doing a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and force us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as legitimate following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Public Discontent

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"We believe this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."