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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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