Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
