Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
