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At first, the former US president gave the impression to take a resolute position on Ukraine. Following delivering warnings of "serious consequences" last August in case Putin persisted obstructing ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially hindered the Russian leader's ability to support his war effort in the region.

But, via his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Invasion

This proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the initiative effectively compromise that very sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate experience, Trump persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. But, Putin's war is not simply about controlling a damaged region of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's apparent desire to weaken it so it no longer acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

While keeping in position the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would require the nation to surrender the whole this eastern territory. Beyond favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically undermined.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine leave these positions, providing Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv in case he subsequently decide to restart the war.

Defense Limitations

Then, in a move that would make additional hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no such restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's efforts to depict Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, the plan states: "Every extremist belief system and actions must be rejected and banned." Apparently to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken similar accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a handback of seized areas in the region to Ukrainian control – why should we trust Putin now?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the proposal threatens a "strong unified defense action" in case Russia restart its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the details range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from deploying troops on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Putin from restoring his weakened military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate supplementary accord according to sources would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. However in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable protection against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react with force to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not