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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd